Friday, December 9th, 2022

When is the historical maximum?

Bitcoin continues to gain height, increasing its dominance index (44.8%) in anticipation of a positive decision on the application of ProShares (October 18) to launch an exchange-traded fund based on futures traded on CME. Attempts on Monday to go into correction were not successful, we can expect that in the subsequent time until the X hour, the bears will not be able to extract something useful for themselves.

Ahead is the Crypto Expo Dubai 2021 from October 14 to 15 (3,000 guests), which may coincide with some bright events. At a previous conference in Miami, the President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, announced the legalization of the first cryptocurrency in this Latin American country.

External events do not affect the mood. Bitcoin ignores the strengthening of the dollar and behaves better than gold. There is still a week left before the SEC’s decision, there is time. The fear index has not reached extreme values, the cost of financing is also far from the levels that can cause concern. Open interest in futures has increased by almost half since the September lows – to $17.6 billion, but this is below $22.5 billion at the same price levels this spring (Glassnode data). Technically, bitcoin has created the prerequisites for testing $ 59,000, the breakdown of which will push the rate to $ 65,000, and then at least the grass will not grow.

Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead drew parallels with the launch of bitcoin futures on CME and the acquisition of Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) listing on Nasdaq. After these events, bitcoin went into a bearish phase. This time, everything may look different due to the behavior of long-term holders, who were not confused by the September turbulence, and strong on-chain metrics (the volume of transferred on-chain value exceeded the indicator of transactional activity of payment systems — $31 billion per day (40 times more compared to the beginning of 2020), one and a half times higher than Visa (NYSE:V).

But we will need to look after the SEC – how stable will profit-taking be?

If, as after the London hard fork in Ethereum, then $100,000 by the end of the year will be quite a realistic scenario. However, doubts still prevail on this score. According to Skew, in the options market until the end of the year, these chances are estimated at ~ 10%, in a repeat of the historical maximum in October – so far only 20% with a small.

Altcoins remain superfluous on this holiday. According to CoinShares, bitcoin funds raised $225 million in the previous week ($156 million in the previous week), there was an influx into Solana-based funds ($12 million), but $14 million was withdrawn from Ethereum products, according to other altcoins – a mixed situation. The reflection is the growing dominance of bitcoin and the negative dynamics of 2/3 of the assets in the top 100 over a seven–day period.